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Covid Advice #12 (11/16/2020):
Bad Winter,
Robust Personal Protection!

- from Dr. Dennis Fong -

I write to say: make sure your personal protection is robust. Back on 07/05 I had warned of a bad winter, and unfortunately it's turning out to be correct. Last week there was one day when US Covid cases jumped by 200,000. And it's getting worse: it took 15 days for U.S. Covid cases to increase from 9 million to 10 million, but only 6 days to increase from 10 million to 11 million.

The problem is the silent spreaders. People who will come down with symptoms have 5 days or more of pre-symptomatic silent spread, and then there are people who will never come down with symptoms but may spread it silently for 2 weeks or more. There are probably 4 times as many asymptomatic silent spreaders as there are diagnosed cases. Calculating with those numbers, we can estimate that as of today, for the whole U.S., about 1 in 20 are silently spreading Covid; for California, about 1 in 50, and for Contra Costa County, about 1 in 80. Those are the chances of running into someone silently spreading the virus, in stores, at work, when people visit, etc.

Making your personal protection robust means 1. personal protective equipment (PPE), 2. decontamination practices, and 3. social distancing.




Wish you happiness! Stay healthy and stay safe!

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